7
Elika
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 23/12/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |