Star Ella
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 14/01/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |