1
Thee New Beginning
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |