Twilight Vision
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |