4
Dolce Marie
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-10-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 29/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |