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8

Holidays Army Brat

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 67

Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength95%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +2.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 14/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2025 · OR 57 par14/07C5OR 57C5 @ Thistledown 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 59 · 6f 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 59 parC5 @ Thistledown 01/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 64 · 5f110y 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 64 par1/09C5OR 64C5 @ Thistledown 24/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 69 · 6f Slo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 69 parC5 @ Thistledown 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 70 · 5f110y Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 70 par1/10C5OR 70C5 @ Mahoning Valley 21/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 66 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 66 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 24/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 69 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 69 par24/11C5OR 69C5 @ Thistledown 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 70 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 70 parC5 @ Thistledown 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 67 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 67 par9/07C5OR 67projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-06-22Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2025-11-24Mahoning Valley?5th1st+3
2025-10-21Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2025-10-01Thistledown?1st-2th+3
2025-09-24Thistledown?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0724/0924/119/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20252nd6/168%83%+0.15
21/08/20252nd8/1196%67%-0.30
01/09/20252nd5/696%50%-0.46
24/09/20252nd15/890%75%-0.15
01/10/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
21/10/20254th5/287%57%-0.30
24/11/20255th14/126%33%+0.07
22/06/20263rd6/168%50%-0.18
09/07/20264th15/261%0%-0.61