6
Lady Lottie
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 19/08/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 8/11 | 96% | 55% | -0.42 |
| 06/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 09/02/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 57% | -0.33 |