National Diamond
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 09/02/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |