4
Airmail Flyer
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 65
Canterbury Park · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 29/06/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |