14:20 · Chester

Queensferry Stakes (Listed)

6f 17yGoodClass 13YO onlyTURF9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 1004/6
Calico Blue silks

Mr Michael D'arcy

3yo Colt · 9-1

Calyx - Queen Of York (Pride Of Dubai)

Ray Dawson60%1/4R Varian60%
112421
9.0Going 10.0

Borderline smart colt whose 3 career wins have come over C&D, latest in 7-runner handicap (good to firm) just last week. Draw is fine and he should take plenty of stopping upped in grade.

Class Advantage

14/06 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a14/0611/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/04 · C2 · finish vs mark above24/04 · mark par19/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par9/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par25/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%14/06Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 88%24/04Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 92%9/07Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%25/07
Projected finish1st of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
3
OR 1086/1
Song of The Clyde silks

Middleham Park Racing CXX & M Parker

3yo Colt · 9-4

Sergei Prokofiev - Queenoftheclyde (Dandy Man)

K Shoemark60%C G Cox
254177
5.0Class ↓1Going 8.0

Won a valuable sales race as a juvenile and took it up another notch to bag a Newbury listed race in May. Found out in Group 1 company at Royal Ascot and a Group 3 back at Newbury since. Should find this level more his bag but has a bit to find at the weights.

Class Advantage

11/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/094/10 · C1 · finish vs mark above4/10 · mark par16/04 · C2 · finish vs mark above16/04 · mark par16/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par19/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par18/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength42%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 95%11/09Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 71%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%16/04Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 71%19/06Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%18/07
Projected finish2nd of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
6
OR 11313/2
Lifeplan silks

Martin Tedham & Wasdell Properties Ltd

3yo Colt · 9-1

Kodi Bear - A Taad Moody (Awtaad)

Zak Wheatley60%2/2D Carroll
11
9.0Class ↓0

Looked good prospect when landing a Thirsk novice on debut before following up in the Gimcrack at York. Fitness has to be taken on trust after over 11 months off and, though the latter race has taken plenty of knocks since, has to be respected given the promise shown last year.

Class Advantage

25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a25/0722/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%25/07Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%22/08
Projected finish3rd of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
2
OR 100100/1
Ardisia silks

Ardisia Partnership

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Ardad - Garraun (Tamayuz)

Cieren Fallon70%H Palmer80%
774630
3.0Class ↓1Going 8.0

Prolific juvenile, winning 5 times, including valuable Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar (listed), but hasn't found the same form when drawing a blank in her 5 outings this year. Questions to answer at present.

Class Advantage

1/11 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/11 · mark par1/1118/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/04 · mark par1/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/05 · mark par16/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par5/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par20/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par20/06projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 6f 17y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 54%1/11Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 57%1/05Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 60%5/06Pos 15 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 7%20/06
Projected finish4th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength30%
ExpectedActualTrend
9
4
OR 9516/1
Simplify silks

Mr Ahmad Alkhallafi & Mr Marc Waters

3yo Filly · 8-10

Profitable - Fanrouge (Red Clubs)

Oisin Murphy70%A M Balding60%
211120
6.0Going 10.0

Progressive when completing a hat-trick in cosy fashion in handicap at Thirsk in April and then finishing ½-length second of 10 to Dickensian in listed race at York in May. Failed to land a blow back in a handicap last time. Represents top yard and worth a market check.

Class Advantage

1/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a1/086/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par31/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/03 · mark par18/04 · C3 · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par14/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above14/05 · mark par19/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par19/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 89%1/08Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%31/03Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 89%14/05Pos 16 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 16 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 42%19/06
Projected finish5th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
5
OR 10411/1
Fitzella silks

Mr D R Passant & Hefin Williams

3yo Filly · 8-10

Too Darn Hot - Shamandar (Exceed And Excel)

David Probert70%0/2H Palmer80%
255650
3.0Class ↓1

Successful twice last year, including an Ascot Group 3, and bounced back from a lesser effort when fifth in Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in June. Can have her latest run excused, while a repeat of her run 2 starts back would put her firmly in the mix.

Class Advantage

24/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par24/0827/09 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/09 · mark par15/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/04 · mark par2/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par19/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par10/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par10/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 83%24/08Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 64%15/04Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 81%19/06Pos 11 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 11 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 17%10/07
Projected finish6th of 9
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength44%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
7
OR 9812/1
Jazl silks

Mr Mohammed Sultan

3yo Gelding · 9-1

No Nay Never - Mummy Bear (Kodi Bear)

J Mitchell60%3/3S & E Crisford
231101
7.0Going 10.0

Gelded and vastly improved this year, landing Windsor maiden and handicaps at Leicester and Newmarket. Only blip on his record this season came at Royal Ascot in June, which can be comfortably excused, and he looks sure to be involved again.

Class Advantage

15/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a15/081/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a7/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a25/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above25/05 · mark par19/06 · C2 · finish vs mark below19/06 · mark par9/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par9/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move3
Strength11%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: GoodDist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 93%15/08Pos 3 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 33%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%7/05Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 27 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 27 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%19/06Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%9/07
Projected finish7th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength61%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
8
OR 107125/1
Rock On Thunder silks

Exors Of The Late Sheikh Mohammed Obai

3yo Colt · 9-1

Night Of Thunder - Boston Rocker (Acclamation)

K Stott70%0/5K A Ryan60%
922660
3.0Class ↓1
Cheek pieces

Best effort last year when close second to Lifeplan in the Gimcrack at York but he's been beaten soundly in 3 outings since and it's easy to look elsewhere despite the drop back in grade.

Class Advantage

17/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0618/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par22/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par20/09 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/09 · mark par23/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par19/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below19/06 · mark par19/06projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: GoodDist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 58%17/06Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 86%22/08Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 29%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 17%23/05Pos 15 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 33%19/06
Projected finish8th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
9
OR 9833/1
Sirius A silks

Team Valor LLC & Gary Barber

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Palace Pier - Night Of Light (Sea The Stars)

George Wood60%James Horton
432150
4.0

Placed in a Group 3 at Kempton and listed race at Dundalk last autumn. Matched that form when making a winning return in conditions race at Wolverhampton. Has been found out back in more competitive company the last twice and has work to do. Has been gelded since last seen.

Class Advantage

25/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/076/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par10/10 · C1 · finish vs mark above10/10 · mark par10/04 · C2 · finish vs mark above10/04 · mark par16/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par19/06 · C2 · finish vs mark below19/06 · mark par19/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 6f 17y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 40%25/07Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 91%10/10Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 56%16/05Pos 23 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 23 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 15%19/06
Projected finish9th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength28%
ExpectedActualTrend