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Bears' D

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 68

Canterbury Park · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Hawthorne 18/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark18/05/2025 · OR 66 par18/05C9OR 66C6 @ Canterbury Park 11/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 56 · 7f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark11/06/2025 · OR 56 parC6 @ Hawthorne 03/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 69 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 69 par3/07C6OR 69C6 @ Canterbury Park 07/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 59 · 6f 124 · below its mark07/08/2025 · OR 59 parC6 @ Canterbury Park 21/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 56 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 56 par21/08C6OR 56C6 @ Canterbury Park 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m Gd 123 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 65 parC9 @ Hawthorne 05/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 67 · 7f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 67 par5/10C9OR 67C8 @ Hawthorne 02/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Hawthorne 19/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m 123 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 72 par19/07C5OR 72projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Hawthorne?9th9th0
2025-11-02Hawthorne?5th8th−3
2025-10-05Hawthorne?1st5th−4
2025-09-06Canterbury Park?3rd4th−1
2025-08-21Canterbury Park?4th5th−1
2025-08-07Canterbury Park?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/057/085/1019/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20254th20/10%50%+0.50
11/06/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
03/07/20256th20/10%17%+0.17
07/08/20256th14/126%17%-0.10
21/08/20254th15/261%57%-0.03
06/09/20253rd15/261%71%+0.11
05/10/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
02/11/20255th10/147%56%+0.08
19/07/20269th33/10%0%0.00