4
Navarre
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 69
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Victor S. Myers Stakes · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-07 | Canterbury Park | BHA53 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-07-10 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 07/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |