4
Jocasta
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 93
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-12-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 12/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 09/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |