Mairsils First
8yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 63
Canterbury Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-07-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-06-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/02/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 12/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 21/08/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |