Northern Angel
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 81
Canterbury Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-06 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2024 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/09/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |