Toffee
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 76
Canterbury Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-05-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-01-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2022 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 13/04/2023 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 36% | -0.46 |
| 02/09/2023 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 01/10/2023 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 03/12/2023 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/01/2024 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 18% | -0.58 |
| 21/03/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 05/05/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |