3
Promises
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 63
Canterbury Park · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 27/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |