6
L'Eagle Aid
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 73
Chester · Radnor Hills Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 63y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newcastle | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |