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Patagonia Girl

4yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 82

Chester · Radnor Hills Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 63y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all over C&D in May before struggling in Group 3 contest at Carlisle. Looked back in form over 10.3f here on her penultimate start but below form over that same trip here last time. Still unexposed over this far, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 10/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 1m1f201y Goo 124 · beat its mark10/06/2025 · OR 72 par10/064OR 723 @ Chester 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 1m2f70y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 75 par3 @ Chester 11/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 1m2f70y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 80 par11/073OR 802 @ Goodwood 30/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 80 · 1m1f197y Gd 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 78 · 1m2f23y Gd 133 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 78 par11/044OR 784 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 80 · 1m4f63y Goo 138 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 80 par1 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m3f39y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 84 par30/051OR 843 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 84 · 1m2f70y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m2f70y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 83 par10/073OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Chester38th7th+1
2026-06-27Chester35th4th+1
2026-05-30Carlisle17th3rd+3
2026-05-08Chester41st1st0
2026-04-11Yarmouth42nd2nd0
2025-07-30Goodwood211th9th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0630/0730/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/06/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
28/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
11/07/20253rd10/382%67%-0.16
30/07/202511th22/10%23%+0.23
11/04/20262nd5/174%92%+0.18
08/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
30/05/20267th66/10%0%0.00
27/06/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
10/07/20268th9/153%0%-0.53