5
Timber Twelve
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 86
Chester · Radnor Hills Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 63y
#2
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |