Ardisia
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 100
Chester · Queensferry Stakes (Listed) · 6f 17y
#2
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 15th | 15th | +0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 90% | +0.85 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 20/06/2026 | 15th | 100/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |