3
Calico Blue
3yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 100
Chester · Queensferry Stakes (Listed) · 6f 17y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/6
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
100%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Sandown | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-11 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-06-14 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |