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8

Fitzella

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 104

Chester · Queensferry Stakes (Listed) · 6f 17y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice last year, including an Ascot Group 3, and bounced back from a lesser effort when fifth in Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in June. Can have her latest run excused, while a repeat of her run 2 starts back would put her firmly in the mix.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 23/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f Goo 12823/0531 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Ascot 26/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 96 par26/071OR 96C0 @ Deauville 24/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 102 · 6f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 102 par1 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 105 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 105 par27/091OR 1051 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 105 · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Goodwood 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 104 par2/051OR 1041 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 102 · 6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 102 par1 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 104 par10/071OR 104projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10York111th11th+0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot15th4th+1
2026-05-02Goodwood16th6th0
2026-04-15Newmarket15th5th+0
2025-09-27Newmarket15th4th+1
2025-08-24Deauville?2nd2nd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0524/082/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength44%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
20/06/20254th4/179%81%+0.02
26/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
24/08/20252nd13/891%83%-0.08
27/09/20255th11/142%50%+0.08
15/04/20265th15/261%64%+0.03
02/05/20266th2/189%38%-0.52
19/06/20265th50/10%81%+0.81
10/07/202611th11/142%17%-0.25