4
Jazl
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 98
Chester · Queensferry Stakes (Listed) · 6f 17y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 27th | 28th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-01 | Brighton | 5 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 85/40 | 89% | 93% | +0.04 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/06/2026 | 27th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |