5

Lifeplan

3yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 113

Chester · Queensferry Stakes (Listed) · 6f 17y

#6

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked good prospect when landing a Thirsk novice on debut before following up in the Gimcrack at York. Fitness has to be taken on trust after over 11 months off and, though the latter race has taken plenty of knocks since, has to be respected given the promise shown last year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 25/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 13025/0751 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/081projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-08-22York11st1st+0
2025-07-25Thirsk51st6th4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
22/08/20251st13/266%100%+0.34