IvyArcIvyArc
6

Rock On Thunder

3yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 107

Chester · Queensferry Stakes (Listed) · 6f 17y

#8

Rank

Odds

125/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort last year when close second to Lifeplan in the Gimcrack at York but he's been beaten soundly in 3 outings since and it's easy to look elsewhere despite the drop back in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 27/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 6f Gd 13327/0541 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR - · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS17/0611 @ Newbury 18/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 95 par18/071OR 951 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 95 par22/081OR 951 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 108 · 6f GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 108 par20/091OR 1081 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 110 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 110 par23/051OR 1101 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 109 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 109 par19/061OR 109projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Royal Ascot115th14th+1
2026-05-23Haydock16th6th+0
2025-09-20Newbury16th6th+0
2025-08-22York12nd2nd+0
2025-07-18Newbury12nd2nd0
2025-06-17Royal Ascot19th9th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0522/0819/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
17/06/20259th14/126%58%+0.32
18/07/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
22/08/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
20/09/20256th7/491%29%-0.62
23/05/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
19/06/202615th125/10%33%+0.33