9
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3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 95
Chester · Queensferry Stakes (Listed) · 6f 17y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 16th | 17th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-06 | Thirsk | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Bath | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 10/07/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 19/06/2026 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.27 |