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10

Miami Matrix

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 83

Chester · Disney's High School Musical At Lowry Handicap · 7f 1y

#6

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 times last year, including twice at this course, and has also made the frame twice from 3 starts round here this season. Back up in grade and may find a few too strong despite a plum draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chester 08/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 79 · 7f127y Gd 116 · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 79 par8/052OR 792 @ Chester 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 7f127y Sft 114 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Chester 11/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 7f127y Gd 135 · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 83 par11/074OR 832 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 117 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 86 par2 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 86 · 7f192y Goo 117 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 86 par22/082OR 864 @ Chester 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 84 · 7f127y GS 134 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 86 · 7f1y Gd 131 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 86 par6/053OR 862 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f1y Gd 121 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 84 · 7f127y Goo 141 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 84 par11/074OR 84projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Chester44th6th−2
2026-05-30Chester29th9th0
2026-05-06Chester34th5th−1
2025-09-13Chester42nd4th−2
2025-08-22York215th15th0
2025-08-02Goodwood213th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/052/086/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength58%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/05/20257th11/142%25%-0.17
14/06/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
11/07/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
02/08/202513th25/10%20%+0.20
22/08/202515th80/10%13%+0.13
13/09/20252nd4/179%90%+0.11
06/05/20264th28/10%75%+0.75
30/05/20269th15/261%20%-0.41
11/07/20264th11/142%63%+0.20