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9

Monarch's Gold

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 92

Chester · Disney's High School Musical At Lowry Handicap · 7f 1y

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

The sole 3-y-o in the field. Won a pair of novices on the all-weather last season and ran a fine second here in May when beaten a neck by the progressive McMurray. Quickly back on track when third of 5 in handicap at Hamilton (8.3f, firm) 17 days ago. Could be firmly in the mix under 7 lb claimer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 03/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f Sta 1303/0944 @ Haydock 26/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f GS 1375 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 90 · 6f16y Std 137 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 90 par24/105OR 902 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 92 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 92 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 92 par13/032OR 922 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Std 130 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 90 · 7f127y Gd 128 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 90 par7/052OR 902 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 93 · 7f3y Goo 125 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 92 · 1m68y Goo 126 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 92 par16/072OR 92projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Hamilton23rd3rd0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs29th9th0
2026-05-07Chester22nd2nd0
2026-04-03Newcastle213th13th0
2026-03-13Southwell22nd2nd0
2026-01-16Newcastle25th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0916/017/0516/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
26/09/20252nd10/1195%80%-0.15
24/10/20251st2/999%100%+0.01
16/01/20265th6/168%60%-0.08
13/03/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
03/04/202613th16/116%8%-0.08
07/05/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
05/06/20269th25/10%47%+0.47
16/07/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29