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Palmar Bay

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 100

Chester · Disney's High School Musical At Lowry Handicap · 7f 1y

#2

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won this race last year from a 10 lb lower mark and returned this season with a close fourth in a listed race at Wolverhampton in March. Has been below form on last 3 outings and this mark makes things tricky for him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ York 14/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 90 · 7f Goo 137 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 90 par14/063OR 902 @ Chester 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 7f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 90 par2 @ Goodwood 23/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 96 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 96 par23/082OR 961 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 96 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 96 parC1 @ Deauville 03/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 95 · 7f100y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 95 par3/12C1OR 951 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 102 · 7f36y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 102 par1 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 103 · 6f212y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 103 par9/051OR 1032 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 102 · 7f1y Gd 138 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 102 par1 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 101 · 7f1y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 101 par11/071OR 101projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Chester18th7th+1
2026-05-30Chester210th10th0
2026-05-09Haydock14th3rd+1
2026-03-07Wolverhampton14th3rd+1
2025-12-03Deauville?4th3rd+1
2025-10-04Redcar16th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/064/109/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength13%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20256th6/168%58%-0.10
03/08/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
23/08/20259th7/163%27%-0.36
04/10/20256th18/15%38%+0.32
03/12/20254th22/10%79%+0.79
07/03/20264th7/163%57%-0.06
09/05/20264th40/10%70%+0.70
30/05/202610th5/174%10%-0.64
11/07/20268th33/10%13%+0.13