4
Power Fizz
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 96
Chester · Disney's High School Musical At Lowry Handicap · 7f 1y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Goodwood | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-09 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Goodwood | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-04-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2024 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 15/10/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 31/01/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 09/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 77% | -0.05 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/06/2026 | 11th | 11/4 | 86% | 23% | -0.62 |