3
Roman Dragon
7yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 97
Chester · Disney's High School Musical At Lowry Handicap · 7f 1y
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 24th | 24th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 76% | +0.50 |
| 19/02/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 59% | -0.04 |
| 02/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 25/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 06/06/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/06/2026 | 24th | 150/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |