2
Alpha Capture
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 82
Chester · J20 Classified Claiming Stakes · 7f 127y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.09 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 47% | -0.35 |