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4

Blue Prince

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 85

Chester · J20 Classified Claiming Stakes · 7f 127y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a losing run stretching back almost 2 years when seeing off 6 rivals over 7f at Salisbury (good) in June. Creditable third at Kempton 18 days later but below form in 4-runner event back at Salisbury last time. Obvious claims if bouncing back, though, and booking of Murphy looks significant.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 09/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 88 · 7f37y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 88 par9/083OR 883 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 86 · 1m13y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 86 par3 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 84 par20/093OR 844 @ Southwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 81 · 1m13y Std 139 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 78 · 7f Sta 133 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 78 par6/054OR 784 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 7f Sft 129 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 6f213y Gd 134 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 79 par14/064OR 794 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 85 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 85 · 1m Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 85 par21/073OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Salisbury33rd2nd+1
2026-07-02Kempton43rd3rd0
2026-06-14Salisbury41st1st0
2026-06-07Goodwood43rd3rd0
2026-05-06Kempton43rd3rd0
2025-10-03Southwell49th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/083/1014/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20257th12/137%25%-0.12
28/08/20259th11/142%33%-0.09
20/09/202510th14/126%10%-0.16
03/10/20259th5/174%33%-0.40
06/05/20263rd9/153%85%+0.32
07/06/20263rd5/287%71%-0.15
14/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
02/07/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
21/07/20263rd5/287%33%-0.54