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6

Midnight Strike

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 77

Chester · J20 Classified Claiming Stakes · 7f 127y

#6

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful at his peak in Ireland and made the most of a big drop in grade fitted with headgear when landing 3-runner seller at Beverley 30 days ago. Found life tougher back in a handicap last time, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA93 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 93 · 7f110y Yie 131 · below its mark31/08/2025 · OR 93 par31/0893OR 93BHA93 @ Listowel 23/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m Hvy 140 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 93 parBHA92 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 92 · 7f Yie 135 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 92 par11/1092OR 923 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 90 · 7f1y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 88 · 7f1y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 88 par30/052OR 883 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 82 · 1m2f56y Goo 158 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 82 par27/064OR 826 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 80 · 1m100y Goo 138 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m1f170y Goo 142 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 par18/074OR 80projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Ripon45th5th0
2026-07-03Beverley61st3rd−2
2026-06-27York48th8th0
2026-06-13York317th16th+1
2026-05-30Chester211th9th+2
2026-05-06Chester313th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/086/0527/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength64%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20253rd9/153%50%-0.03
23/09/20254th17/255%63%+0.07
11/10/202513th10/147%0%-0.47
06/05/202613th100/10%0%0.00
30/05/202611th50/10%0%0.00
13/06/202617th125/10%11%+0.11
27/06/20268th40/10%46%+0.46
03/07/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
18/07/20265th13/266%20%-0.46