9
Cape Fear
3yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 78
Chester · Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |