10
Eagle Day
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 62
Chester · Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 26/01/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 17/02/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 04/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 07/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 27% | -0.36 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |