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6

Echalar

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 74

Chester · Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 70y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f Wolverhampton handicap in January for Jane Chapple-Hyam. Rather in-and-out since for new connections, but he does at least arrive on the back of a couple of solid efforts, most recently when fourth of 6 at Chepstow (1m, good to firm) last month. Back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 06/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 7f36y Std 127 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 77 par6/014OR 774 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f Sta 131 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 80 · 7f14y Std 131 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 80 par20/024OR 804 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 1m Std 134 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 79 par2 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 77 · 1m13y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 77 par7/042OR 774 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 76 par2 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 76 · 1m2f70y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 76 par8/052OR 765 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 75 par16/075OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Chepstow54th5th−1
2026-06-27Chepstow53rd4th−1
2026-05-08Chester210th8th+2
2026-04-27Wolverhampton47th7th0
2026-04-07Southwell26th4th+2
2026-03-12Chelmsford City46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0112/038/0516/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/01/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
04/02/20269th4/179%11%-0.68
20/02/202611th33/10%9%+0.09
12/03/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
07/04/20266th40/10%58%+0.58
27/04/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
08/05/202610th80/10%10%+0.10
27/06/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
16/07/20264th6/168%40%-0.28