1
Farasi Lane
8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 79
Chester · Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 62% | -0.10 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |