3
Etawa
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 101
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-11 | Clonmel | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 11/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |