4
Lien On Her
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 77
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength95%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |