8
Lolo's Girl
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 71
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-23 | Fair Grounds | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-02-23 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-01-31 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 23/02/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/03/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 23/03/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |