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Nick's Notion

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 84

Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Aqueduct 16/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark16/01/2025 · OR 60 par16/01C7OR 60C8 @ Laurel Park 22/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark22/02/2025 · OR 65 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 15/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark15/03/2025 · OR 71 par15/03C6OR 71C5 @ Laurel Park 27/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 114 · below its mark27/04/2025 · OR 81 parC5 @ Laurel Park 24/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 115 · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 84 par24/05C5OR 84C5 @ Laurel Park 20/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 85 · 1m110y 116 · below its mark20/06/2025 · OR 85 parC5 @ Laurel Park 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 1m Gd 123 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 78 par26/04C5OR 78C5 @ Laurel Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 77 · 1m 126 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Laurel Park 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 1m110y 123 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 84 par28/06C5OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-16Laurel Park?5th5th0
2026-04-26Laurel Park?1st1st0
2025-06-20Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2025-05-24Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2025-04-27Laurel Park?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0127/0426/0428/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength98%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20254th16/116%57%+0.41
22/02/20252nd9/153%83%+0.31
15/03/20252nd20/10%75%+0.75
27/04/20256th8/158%17%-0.41
24/05/20252nd20/10%89%+0.89
20/06/20253rd11/271%33%-0.38
26/04/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
16/05/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
28/06/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08