1
Princess Clemmie
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 76
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |