6
Soul Dance
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 94
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 100/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |