5
The Stork Club
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 77
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Keswick Stakes · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |