4
Mister Chang
4yo Gelding · 9-2
Deauville · Grand Handicap Des Sprinters - World Pool By Pmu · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 23% | -0.37 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 87% | +0.71 |
| 03/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 17/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 79% | +0.02 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 87% | +0.01 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |