1
Blue Bolt
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 119
Deauville · Prix Rothschild - Fonds Europeen De L'elevage - World Pool By Pmu (fillies' Group 1) · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
85/40
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sandown | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Sandown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 19/05/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |