5
Evolutionist
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 111
Deauville · Prix Rothschild - Fonds Europeen De L'elevage - World Pool By Pmu (fillies' Group 1) · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Curragh | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 94% | +0.79 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |