2
Gaga Girl
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 97
Deauville · Prix Rothschild - Fonds Europeen De L'elevage - World Pool By Pmu (fillies' Group 1) · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-11-21 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 17/06/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 65% | +0.18 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |